And we may never return.

When Dorothy left home with no particular plan for her future, she ended up visiting the land of Oz. She returned to the world she knew wiser for her visit and assured that the place she called home was heaven on earth. She needed to leave in order to appreciate it.

Not so in the mainline church. Fifty years ago there were six major mainline denominations that accounted for the majority of people who called themselves Protestant Christians. Lutherans were one of the six.

Today these six denominations are in serious decline. Non-denominational churches or smaller denominations have a bigger piece of the Protestant pie. But the pie is being nibbled away.

I’ve been reading the statistical studies of George Barna. His Group did research the scientific way, issuing a report in 2008.

Redeemer’s Ambassadors just started visiting churches of our denomination. Nothing scientific about it. But our findings are empirical. We look up a church on Saturday afternoon and visit on Sunday. We’ve visited close to half the congregations in the Southeastern Pennsylvania Synod of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. We’ve found the Barna Group statistics to be true. If anything, they are even more dire today, five years later.

The average age of a mainline pastor in 2008 was 55. We’ve seen only a few younger than that and most are considerably older.

His report talks about today’s short pastoral tenure. Most pastors stay in one parish only about four years. Since the current custom in our denomination is to place an interim pastor for as long as two years when a pastor leaves, there is really no realistic expectation that any pastor will become a “settled” pastor. The key leadership position in most churches is a revolving door. Smaller churches tend to be waiting rooms for pastors hoping for openings in larger congregations with bigger budgets.

We hear pastor after pastor talk about taking the training for serving as an interim. They may soon be the majority! That this is so widespread disproves the tendency of church leaders to blame congregations when tenures are short. The commitment level seems to be low.

Shorter tenures may not be a bad thing.  Society is no longer settled. But how this is to work while maintaining congregational polity and the interest of lay people will be the challenge. Lay leadership is bound to wane when lay Christians provide the continuity in ministry but must exist under synodical scrutiny for an undesignated period of time—every four years. 

This 2008 report reveals that 35% of people attending church are 60-plus. Our experience is that number can be easily doubled. The elderly are the majority in almost every congregation we have visited. Children in worship are rare. Frequently, there are none. Youth are even rarer. Young adults are in the minority.

The report cites the inability of the mainline church to attract racial and ethnic minorities, particularly Hispanic and Asian. Our visits reinforce that finding. In addition, we see very little diversity within congregations. There are just a few that have any measurable diversity. Most are either predominantly black or white—mostly white. Synod Assemblies can crow all they want about diversity. Statistics don’t back it up.

Interestingly, the report points to the quality of leadership as presenting serious challenges. “especially regarding vision, creativity, strategic thinking, and the courage to take risks.” Our experience mirrors and magnifies this finding. Church leadership is in a rut. It cries to the laity to pull them out of the rut, but it gives them no power to do so. In fact, it can be very judgmental, even punitive, towards lay leadership if they attempt differing approaches to ministry. Yet the need for transformation is regularly preached. 

Our visits and experience attest that this is a critical problem and perhaps the biggest threat to the future of the Church. The professional leadership model just isn’t working at any level and is unlikely to change without some major fresh blood. The Church has a hard time generating or recognizing talent that can make a difference. Laity are valued for their support not their talent and initiative. Pastors tend to exist in their own worlds. They are rewarded for being good followers, not leaders.

The report goes on to talk about emerging options for Christians and their greater exposure to different religious expressions as changing the face of the mainline Church.

Perhaps we should have been paying more attention to independent churches and the religious expression of smaller denominations all this time. We might have learned something. We still can.

Perhaps our Oz is a “melting pot” phenomenon. Maybe the lessons we need to learn have something to do with recognizing that we and our neighbors are not who we think we are. Congregants are likely to find this refreshing and exciting. Mainline church structure may find it bewildering and threatening.

But most alarming may be the economic statistics. Those who attend church are less well to do than they used to be. The wealthy have found other, more rewarding places to spend their money.  

The educational level of church leaders has dipped. Salaries have risen.

Offerings have dropped. More than a third of those who attend church do not contribute at all. At the same time church budgets have doubled.

In our experience  the aging of the church-going population has sparked a move by church institutions to corner the market on endowment giving. Seminaries, social service agencies and regional bodies encourage the donors to think of them when planning their estates. Any questions, just call their development officer. Be wined and dined while the papers are drawn up.

Fifty years ago, those bequests might have been designated for the local churches. Small churches don’t have development staff to work with members. In addition, regional bodies are assuming powers to claim gifts bestowed on small congregations. Future gifts are unlikely. People want their money to go where they want it to go! A lot of dollars that could be supporting congregations are disappearing.

We are in the Land of Oz. Are we learning any lessons?

If we can ever return to the health and influence of decades past, what might we do differently?

There’s no place like home.

photo credit: drurydrama (Len Radin) via photopin cc